Vo PT, Gooley TA, Carpenter PA, et al. Prediction of Outcomes After Second-Line Treatment for Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease. Blood Advances. 2022; (doi: 10.1182/bloodadvances.2021006220).
A recent study identified risk factors and predictive models for 6- and 12-month mortality following second-line treatment for acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). Researchers evaluated overall survival (OS) and failure-free survival (FFS) for 216 patients who underwent allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation. At 6 months from second-line treatment for acute GVHD, point estimates for OS and FFS were 59% and 42%, respectively. Point estimates for OS and FFS at 12 months were 52% and 37% respectively. The predictive models for OS and FFS used the serum albumin and total bilirubin concentrations at the onset of second-line treatment, patient age at onset of second-line therapy, and a combination of abdominal pain/stage-4 gut involvement. Optimism-corrected areas under the receiver-operator characteristic curve were 77.4 for 6-month mortality and 80.0 for 12-month mortality, while Brier scores were 0.169 for both 6- and 12-month mortality. In addition to identifying risk factors linked to mortality and failure after second-line treatment of acute GVHD, the proposed predictive models for 6- and 12-month mortality could be used in the creation of population-specific benchmarks, the researchers report.